000732股票CommentaryforMonday

000732股票CommentaryforMonday

CommentaryforMonday:Withlastweek’sjobsreportinhand,theFedisscheduledtomeetonTuesdayandWednesdayfortheirfinal2017meeting.

Wednesdayafternoon,theFOMCwilllikelyannouncearatehikealongwiththereleaseofthelatestSummaryofEconomicProjections,followedbyChairYellen'sfinalpost-FOMCpressconference.Despiterecentstronginflationprints,webelieveitistooearlyforthemedian"dot"tochangefromSeptember'sSEP.However,theremaybesomeupwardmigrationofindividualdotsreflectingrecentstrengthininflationaswellasrevisionsto000732股票CommentaryforMondaygrowthandunemploymentforecaststotakeintoaccountrecenteconomicperformance.InChairYellen'spressconference,weexpecthertofieldquestionsontheinflationoutlook,thetaxreformbill,andthechangeinFedleadership.Towardsthefirstpoint,hermessageoninflationwilllikelybeclosetotheFed'srecentrhetoricthattransitoryfactorsarethemostimportantsourceofrecentinflationmisses.Inre000732股票CommentaryforMondaygardstotaxreform,shewilllikelynotcommentotherthantoreiteratethattheFedwilltakeintoaccounttheimplicationsofthetaxreformbilloneconomicactivitywhenitsetsmonetarypolicy.SeeourrecentFedNoteformoredetail.

GoingintotheFOMCmeeting,therewillbeafewimportantdatapointsthattheFedwilllikelyalsobewatching.ThoughMonday'sJOLTSdatawillbeabitstaleasitreferstoOctober,thehiringandquitsratesarefavoriteindicatorsforChairYellen.AhigherpriorityfortheFed,however,isTuesday'sPPIandWednesday'sCPI,whichonthemarginmayinfluencethetoneofinflationlanguageintheFOMCstatement.WeexpectslightmoderationsinPPIgivenlastmonth’sstrongprintsinbothheadlineandcore.OfnoteforusisthehealthcareservicescomponentofthePPI,whichisaninputintothecorrespondingseriesinthecorePCEdeflator-theFed’spreferredinflationmetric.RecallthathealthcarehasthelargestweightinginthecorePCE.OurviewisthattheinflationtrendsarebeginningtofirmandshouldcontinueinWednesday'sCPIforbothheadlineaswellascore.Printsinlinewithourforecastwouldboostthesix-monthannualizedchangeincoreCPIabout25basispointsoverOctober’snumberof1.8%,whichwouldprovidefurtherevidenceoffirminginflation.

PosttheFOMCmeeting,wereceiveretailsalesandinventoriesonThursday.

Withregardtotheformer,weexpecttotalretailsalestoremainroughlysteady.Autosaleswilllikelyremainadraginthenearfuturepartiallyduetohighgaspricesaswellashurricane-relatedreplacementpullingdemandintopreviousmonths.Becauseofthis,weseeexautoscominginstrongerthanoverallretailsales.Weseeanotherstrongprintinretailcontrolaswell,growingatabout0.4%month-on-month,whichisconsistentwithour2.5%Q4PCEforecast.Givensomepreviouspost-hurricanerelateddra000732股票CommentaryforMondaywdowninbusinessinventories,particularlyinretailmotorvehicles,weexpectsomebouncebackasmanufacturersandretailersrestoretheirinventoriestonormallevels.Onthemargin,thiscouldaffectourQ4GDPforecast,whichiscurrentlyat2.8%.

Friday’sdataisallaboutmanufacturingwhichshouldshowcontinuedsolidmomentum.Industrialproductionwilllikelymoderateslightlyafterlastmonth’sstrongprint000732股票CommentaryforMonday,thoughitshouldgetabitofaboostfromaggregatehoursworkedinmanufacturingandminingandlogging.Capacityutilizationshouldtickupabitasitcontinuesitsrecoveryfromthemid-2014oilpricecollapse.Aswithindustrialproduction,theNewYorkFed’sEmpiresurveyshouldmoderateoffofrecenthighs,butremainsolidlyinpositiveterritory.Expectationsforthefuturehavebeenstronginthissurvey,aswellasotherregionalmanufacturingsurveys,particularlyinthenewordersandcapit000732股票CommentaryforMondayalexpenditurecomponents.Allofthesestrongmanufacturingdataagainpointtowardsolid,abovetrendgrowthinQ4.

Asalways,keepanearoutfornewsoutofWashington.BoththeHouseandSenatehavenamedtheirrepresentativesfortheconferencethatwillattempttoreconcilethetwoversionsofthetaxreformbill,andnegotiationsareproceedingwithagoalofhavingafinalbillcompletedandsenttothePresidentbyChristmas.

Dependingonthefinalcontoursofthebill,thisremainsanupsiderisktoour2018growthforecastsof2.3%.Also,Tuesday’sspecialelectionfortheAlabamaSenateisworthwatching,whichcurrentpollshaveasatoss-up.WhilethiswillnotlikelyimpacttaxreformifpassedaccordingtoRepublicans’idealschedule,itcouldhaveanimpactifthebill’sprogressdragsoutintonextyear.

Negotiationsregardinggovernmentfundingarealsoproceedingapace,withatwo-weekcontinuingresolutionpassinglastThursday,keepingthelightsonuntilDecember22nd.Thisisintendedtogivelawmakerstimetoputtogetheralongertermbudgetdeal,butthereisachancethisturnsmessywithsomepoliticiansonbothsidesspoilingforafight.Weultimatelyviewaprotractedgovernmentshutdownasunlikely,butitisstillariskworthflagging.

ChinaHealthcare:CSPC,Luye&SinobiopharmshinedinFujian城市传媒:城市传媒广场露脸西海岸,探究多元素交融的新业态引荐阅览:缺口理论宝钢股份亮出新一期股权鼓励方案江恩理论

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